Kosmonaut: web browser from scratch in Rust
485 by adamnemecek | 305 comments on Hacker News.
Saturday, August 15, 2020
Friday, August 14, 2020
New ask Hacker News story: Ask HN: Did Nate Silver End Up Listening to Nassim Taleb's Critique?
Ask HN: Did Nate Silver End Up Listening to Nassim Taleb's Critique?
5 by Tomminn | 0 comments on Hacker News.
I noticed listening to 538 today that Nate Silver produced a model that gives Biden a 71% chance of victory, which is anomalously low chance given current polling data. The explanation is given that the election is in the future, and therefore there is future uncertainty. This can be interpreted as there is future uncertainty in the polling data , which I believe was precisely the pertinent fact Silver's 2016 model ignored, according to Taleb's critique. I'd be interested to hear from people, especially people who took Nate Silver's side in the debate, whether they still believe he hasn't absorbed Taleb's critique.
5 by Tomminn | 0 comments on Hacker News.
I noticed listening to 538 today that Nate Silver produced a model that gives Biden a 71% chance of victory, which is anomalously low chance given current polling data. The explanation is given that the election is in the future, and therefore there is future uncertainty. This can be interpreted as there is future uncertainty in the polling data , which I believe was precisely the pertinent fact Silver's 2016 model ignored, according to Taleb's critique. I'd be interested to hear from people, especially people who took Nate Silver's side in the debate, whether they still believe he hasn't absorbed Taleb's critique.
